Just When you Thought the “Green Shoots” were Taking Root

From National Jeweler:

Here’s a bucket of ice water in the face if your in the retail business (or a supplier to the retail business).  National Jeweler quotes a survey performed by Worthington, Ohio-based Big Research that paints a truly dire picture for the upcoming holiday season.  There’s all kinds of talk these days in the financial headlines about “green shoots” taking root in the economy.  This optimism (some would claim unfounded optimism) has been the fuel behind the stock market’s blast-off from the March lows.  I would argue, though, that if this years retail holiday buying season doesn’t at least soundly beat last years, we’re almost certainly headed for a double dip recession.

This survey predicts that not only will this holiday shopping season not soundly trump last year’s, but it might in fact be even weaker.  A full sixty nine percent of respondents answered that they will be “spending less on everyone” this year compared with last year.  Thirty two percent said they would be buying for fewer relatives.  Thirty one percent said the same thing regarding friends. The survey also indicated that shoppers will be going to greater lengths to be more efficient shoppers — forty eight percent said they would only buy items on sale while forty percent said they would be doing more comparison shopping compared with last year.

The most frightening response: a full twenty four percent of respondents said they would save money by making their own gifts!

I’ve always sided with the deflationists in the Great Recession debate.  If the results of this survey are reliable, then it’s pretty much a forgone conclusion.